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Yesterday: 2-1
Season: 400-383

As promised, I’m going to clue you all in today on who I liked as contenders before the playoffs started, and who I am favoring now that we’ve seen more than half of each first round series unfold. Needless to say, my thoughts have already shifted momentously – and they probably will again a few more times before we get to the NBA Finals in June.

Before the Playoffs started, I really thought I knew where I stood on all 16 teams. I ranked my assessment of the teams based on their ability to truly contend for a title as follows:

1. San Antonio
2. Miami
3. Oklahoma City
4. LA Clippers
5. Houston
6. Golden State
7. Indiana
8. Memphis
9. Portland
10. Chicago
11. Brooklyn
12. Dallas
13. Toronto
14. Washington
15. Atlanta
16. Charlotte

After watching (and thoroughly enjoying, may I add) the first round of the playoffs so far, I have changed my thoughts on quite a few of these teams. Here is my new, current assessment:

1. Miami
2. LA Clippers
3. San Antonio
4. Memphis
5. Oklahoma City
6. Portland
7. Golden State
8. Dallas
9. Houston
10. Toronto
11. Brooklyn
12. Washington
13. Indiana
14. Atlanta
15. Chicago
16. Charlotte

As you see, it now goes Miami, then all EIGHT Western Conference Playoff teams in a row. Seriously, though – don’t you feel like even Dallas or Houston could beat the Raptors, Nets, or Pacers right now in a seven game series? The Pacers might seem a bit low at 13 – but the fact is, I wouldn’t favor them over Washington in a series right now – their most likely opponent, should they survive the Hawks here in Round 1.

The toughest parts of this ranking for me were between 4 and 7 and 11 and 14 – thus sections seem fairly muddled – but the top seems pretty defined to me right now. Miami has the easiest path to the Finals, and we know that the Heat in top gear can beat anyone on any given day. Not a good sign for the contenders out West that there is little chance of them being taken out prior to the Finals.

My prediction right now for the NBA Finals? I would personally pick Heat-Clippers right now. That was my pick in mid-March, and I’ve stuck to it as my personal pick for the Finals match-up. Memphis or San Antonio are the most likely spoilers, but how fun would a Memphis-LAC second round series be? Man, I hope we get to see that – and after last night, it looks like we will.

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Yesterday: 2-3
Season: 136-124

Woke up sick today, so I’m sorry if I come across crabbier than usual in this post. I am a miserable person when I am sick, and just horrible to be around – so be thankful you only get Internet me and not the full version.

Washington (202.5 o/u) @ Detroit (-2.5)

Okay, Detroit should be better than they’ve been, but against Washington they seem to have problems. I can see Nene mucking up their frontcourt advantage a little bit, and John Wall definitely can shred the Pistons wobbly defense. I can’t pick against Detroit at home in this match-up, because I still have faith in them, but I can pick against either team defending at all.

Pick: Over 202.5

Dallas (214.5 o/u) @ Minnesota (-4.5) 

Another huge over/under that feels really safe to me. These are two teams that seem to have absolutely zero interest in defending the rim most nights and that have been known to score 60 points in any given half. I gotta take the over – but I also want to take Minne. They really need to start winning important games, and with Dallas ahead of them in the standings, this would qualify as an important game. I trust the Wolves, for some reason, despite having watched them a ton this year.

Pick: Over 214.5 and Minnesota -4.5

Chicago (181.5 o/u) @ Memphis (-5)

Memphis scored 120 points last night and now the over/under line for a game they are playing in 181.5… I am so angry because these are two awful offensive teams but neither is anywhere near full strength and it just could be a sloppy mess that ends up in the high 90s by complete accident. Memphis seems to be getting things right, though, and Chicago is still a disaster.

Pick: Memphis -5

Portland (-3) @ New Orleans (212 o/u)

My two favorite teams to watch! The Blazers flow offense against the Pelicans brow defense! So excited to watch this without the stress of a bet on it if I can stay awake with all this throat medicine in me.

Pass

Miami (-2) @ Denver (201 o/u)

Minuscule line for the best basketball team in the world against a very imperfect Nuggets team. Not a question.

Pick: Miami -2

Charlotte (189 o/u) @ Utah (-2)

Okay, again – I get it, Utah is better than their record. But are they really even a pretty good basketball team? I say no. They play Richard Jefferson serious minutes and use him – a lot – on offense. I like Trey Burke, Derrick Favors and Alec Burks, and I think Gordon Hayward can be great if his usage rate doesn’t need to be so high for them, but this team is just not ready to win a lot of NBA games yet.

Pick: Charlotte +2

Phoenix (210.5 o/u) @ LA Clippers (-8)

If I am awake for the start of this game then I am suing the makers of NyQuil. If I catch the start, I’ll end up taping my eyes open so I can see the whole thing. Fascinating match-up, but I can’t risk investing myself in it at given my current state. Ugh.

Pass

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Yesterday: 2-5
Season: 79-63

Orlando (189.5 o/u) @ Charlotte (-6)

Vucevic is questionable again, the Hornetcats are coming off a big, swagger-inducing victory, and the Charlotte fans might actually have something to get fired up about. The over is tempting here, but only if Orlando can shoot the ball, and against this defense I’m not so sure.
Pick: Charlotte -6

LA Clippers (-6) @ Boston (196.5 o/u)

Okay, so Boston has over-performed and LAC has under-performed so far this year, right? I feel pretty good about the Clippers here, even with Doc’s supposedly emotional return to Boston. I don’t buy that “juicy” storyline – I think it was just time for both sides to move on. The over/under is tricky because despite taking part in some high-scoring games lately, Boston’s pacing has grinded to a halt in December. In 4 games, they are averaging just 91.5 possessions per 48 minutes, which would be good for worst in the league over the full season.
Pick: LA Clippers -6

San Antonio (-11) @ Milwaukee (193 o/u)

2nd night of a back-to-back for both teams, total trap game. Could be a pretty low quality game. Not touching it.
Pass

Detroit (202 o/u) @ New Orleans (-3.5)

I really want to bet Detroit in this one, but New Orleans has been hanging tough without the ‘Brow with strong play from Holiday and Anderson. They could shred this Pistons defense pretty efficiently, I think. I also am continuing to take the over on any Pistons game against a league average or better offense.
Pick: Over 202 and New Orleans -3.5

Philadelphia (209.5 o/u) @ Minnesota (-12)

Wow, so Minnesota would have to blow out two horrific Eastern Conference defenses in a row to cover here, huh? Sold.
Pick: Minnesota -12 

Chicago (184 o/u) @ New York (-2.5)

Is anyone actually watching this game between the league’s two biggest markets?
Pass

Oklahoma City (-6) @ Memphis (191.5 o/u)

I like OKC to cover here with ease. Memphis has proven me wrong a few times this year but I still think I have a good feel for them. If they prevent OKC from covering tonight I’ll consider changing my mind about Z-Bo and the Boys.
Pick: OKC -6

Utah (201.5 o/u) @ Sacramento (-7)

Seriously so glad there’s a ridiculous Over/Under in this game because I did not want to bet on either team here.
Pick: Under 201.5 

Dallas (208.5 o/u) @ Golden State (-5)

Both teams coming off tough losses, two high-scoring teams, but Warriors have the better defense. Taking the Dubs here.
Pick: Golden State -5

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Yesterday’s Picks: 3-4

On The Season: 18-14

Tonight’s Action

Miami Heat (+3) at Indiana: I know, I know. Indiana is undefeated at home, and this is virtually a preview of the Eastern Conference finals in many’s opinion. However, coming after a grind of a road trip, they’re definitely a little worn down. I think this match up will come down to the two best players on the court and the obvious winner here will be King James. Paul George has proven he can play with the best in the world but he has done it far less consistently than the company he aims to keep. The Pacers were throttled recently by the Thunder and I predict that even without DWade, the Heat keep them at bay. Miami being an underdog is a rare gift in my opinion and they will be bringing their A-Game to the arena formerly known as Conseco. Miami all the way.

New York at Cleveland (o/u 188.5)

To say both these squads are struggling would be a massive understatement. That being said, it’s important to note that they both allow under 100 PPG and Cleveland is particularly solid at home. The Knicks have surged a little of late but had their souls crushed by Boston, losing by 41 and getting booed of their own, sacred home court. I think it’ll be low scoring with both teams being somewhat of a disaster so far. Knicks have been under in 6 out of their last 7 road games, and Cleveland has been under 4 of their last 6. Let’s hope these trends continue. UNDER.

Boston (+2.) at Brooklynn

Boston continues to overachieve under the leadership of Brad Stevens and they have shocked plenty of people in the process. Brooklyn, on the other hand, has been simply awful and seem destined to occupy the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. They’re 2-6 at home and the Celtics are 6-1 against the spread when facing opponents with losing records. I’ll take my hometown boys here at +2 , as the wrong team is clearly favored in this one.

Oklahoma (-5) at Atlanta

I like OKC here. Hawks fans are all jazzed up because they recently destroyed the 6-12 Cavs. OKC fans are jazzed up because they recently destroyed the 18-2 Pacers. It will be a close game throughout as Atlanta continues to grow as a team but the Durant factor will eventually decide the outcome. In the past 10 games, the Thunder are a sizzling 9-1 and it’s gonna stay that way, even against a very solid Atlanta roster.

San Antonio (-7.5) at Toronto

The raptors will NOT punish me again tonight. SA is gonna dominate.

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Yesterday: 3-4
Season: 77-58

Miami (190 o/u) @ Indiana (-3)

Dwyane Wade is questionable, but even so it’s hard to bet against the defending champs. Indiana is back from a brutal road trip where they had to play Portland, OKC and San Antonio. This one is hard to call, but I’m breaking with my boy Capps on this one and  going with the best player alive here. 
Pick: Miami +3

New York (188.5 o/u) @ Cleveland (-2.5)

A tale of two messes. God, this could get ugly. New York was hot until Boston nuked them on Sunday @ MSG. Both of these teams are defensively lacking, but also play at rates too slow for me to feel good about the over. Ugh.
Pass

San Antonio (-7.5) @ Toronto (198 o/u)

The line looks solid for San Antonio, but after Sacramento handed me my ass yesterday I’m not going to touch a team that will be emotionally charged coming off a trade. The o/u looks high to me, though.
Pick: Under 198

Minnesota (203.5 o/u) @ Detroit (-1)

Neither team can defend, both play at fast clips, and Kevin Love is “probable.”
Pick: Over 203.5 and Minnesota +1

Boston (193 o/u) @ Brooklyn (-2)

Until Brooklyn wins a game I’m not betting on them when they’re favored. No.
Pick: Boston +2 and Under 193

Oklahoma City (-5) @ Atlanta (203 o/u)

203 sounds perfect for this game. I hate -5 lines because that indicates a close game, and last minute free throws can eff that up pretty good. Not touching this one.
Pass

Milwaukee (182.5 o/u) @ Chicago (-7.5)

The line was late coming in on this one today (UPDATED: It’s in, and it sucks anyway). With Luol Deng doubtful, and Milwaukee not exactly looking primed to take advantage of that, this is a gross match-up. I for one am not going to watch or bet on it.
Pass

Phoenix (206 o/u) @ LA Lakers (-3)

I don’t like both these teams to score over 100, especially since the Lakers offense will still be adjusting to Kobe being back.
Pick: Under 206

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Yesterday: 1-2
Season: 74-54

LA Clippers (-8) @ Philadelphia (207 o/u)

Feels like a trap line given Philly’s weird toughness at home this year. Carter-Williams is questionable, but why bet on only one of these fast-paced offenses when you can just take the over? 
Pick: Over 207

Golden State (-5.5) @ Charlotte (195 o/u)

Charlotte has been suddenly excellent defensively this season, but their offense has still been a dreary mess. To make matters worse, that defense will be stretched by Golden State’s ridiculous 3-point attack, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist’s not stepping on that court.
Pick: Golden State -5.5 & Over 195

Denver (-1.5) @ Washington (200 o/u)

This one feels tough – Washington plays at a fast clip, and so does Denver, but the Wizards have been a pretty solid defense so far. The over feels a little too risky here. Nene has had a really nice season so far, and John Wall continues to impress, but I think the Nuggets are a better team. I just don’t have a good feel for this match-up.
Pass

Orlando (188 o/u) @ Memphis (-9.5)

Okay, so, the over/under line for this game opened at 208, and has since plummeted down to 188. 208 was way too high to start with, but I think there has been an over-correction in the market. Yes, it is a Memphis game, and people love to trend low on those score totals, but Marc Gasol isn’t playing and he is their most important defensive piece. Zach Randolph is hurting also, so the bigger question for me won’t be whether Orlando can put up big points, but whether Memphis can.
Pick: Orlando +9.5 & Over

Portland (-7.5) @ Utah (203 o/u)

This one is interesting to me because Utah is playing much better in the past 5 games than they did for the first part of the season. Trey Burke looks like an NBA-caliber point guard, which is basically the exact opposite of how John Lucas III looked early this season. Portland is still playing some really great basketball lately, though, and I think that there’s more than an 8 point difference between these two teams.

Pick: Portland -7.5

Dallas (-4.5) @ Sacramento (204.5 o/u)

Easiest pick of the night for me. Post-trade Sacramento is short-handed, unsettled and will be relying on Boogie Cousins more than usual for leadership with veterans like John Salmons and Chuck Hayes gone. Not a good sign.

Pick: Dallas -4.5