By |

Yesterday: 2-1
Season: 400-383

As promised, I’m going to clue you all in today on who I liked as contenders before the playoffs started, and who I am favoring now that we’ve seen more than half of each first round series unfold. Needless to say, my thoughts have already shifted momentously – and they probably will again a few more times before we get to the NBA Finals in June.

Before the Playoffs started, I really thought I knew where I stood on all 16 teams. I ranked my assessment of the teams based on their ability to truly contend for a title as follows:

1. San Antonio
2. Miami
3. Oklahoma City
4. LA Clippers
5. Houston
6. Golden State
7. Indiana
8. Memphis
9. Portland
10. Chicago
11. Brooklyn
12. Dallas
13. Toronto
14. Washington
15. Atlanta
16. Charlotte

After watching (and thoroughly enjoying, may I add) the first round of the playoffs so far, I have changed my thoughts on quite a few of these teams. Here is my new, current assessment:

1. Miami
2. LA Clippers
3. San Antonio
4. Memphis
5. Oklahoma City
6. Portland
7. Golden State
8. Dallas
9. Houston
10. Toronto
11. Brooklyn
12. Washington
13. Indiana
14. Atlanta
15. Chicago
16. Charlotte

As you see, it now goes Miami, then all EIGHT Western Conference Playoff teams in a row. Seriously, though – don’t you feel like even Dallas or Houston could beat the Raptors, Nets, or Pacers right now in a seven game series? The Pacers might seem a bit low at 13 – but the fact is, I wouldn’t favor them over Washington in a series right now – their most likely opponent, should they survive the Hawks here in Round 1.

The toughest parts of this ranking for me were between 4 and 7 and 11 and 14 – thus sections seem fairly muddled – but the top seems pretty defined to me right now. Miami has the easiest path to the Finals, and we know that the Heat in top gear can beat anyone on any given day. Not a good sign for the contenders out West that there is little chance of them being taken out prior to the Finals.

My prediction right now for the NBA Finals? I would personally pick Heat-Clippers right now. That was my pick in mid-March, and I’ve stuck to it as my personal pick for the Finals match-up. Memphis or San Antonio are the most likely spoilers, but how fun would a Memphis-LAC second round series be? Man, I hope we get to see that – and after last night, it looks like we will.

By |

Yesterday: 2-3
Season: 136-124

Woke up sick today, so I’m sorry if I come across crabbier than usual in this post. I am a miserable person when I am sick, and just horrible to be around – so be thankful you only get Internet me and not the full version.

Washington (202.5 o/u) @ Detroit (-2.5)

Okay, Detroit should be better than they’ve been, but against Washington they seem to have problems. I can see Nene mucking up their frontcourt advantage a little bit, and John Wall definitely can shred the Pistons wobbly defense. I can’t pick against Detroit at home in this match-up, because I still have faith in them, but I can pick against either team defending at all.

Pick: Over 202.5

Dallas (214.5 o/u) @ Minnesota (-4.5) 

Another huge over/under that feels really safe to me. These are two teams that seem to have absolutely zero interest in defending the rim most nights and that have been known to score 60 points in any given half. I gotta take the over – but I also want to take Minne. They really need to start winning important games, and with Dallas ahead of them in the standings, this would qualify as an important game. I trust the Wolves, for some reason, despite having watched them a ton this year.

Pick: Over 214.5 and Minnesota -4.5

Chicago (181.5 o/u) @ Memphis (-5)

Memphis scored 120 points last night and now the over/under line for a game they are playing in 181.5… I am so angry because these are two awful offensive teams but neither is anywhere near full strength and it just could be a sloppy mess that ends up in the high 90s by complete accident. Memphis seems to be getting things right, though, and Chicago is still a disaster.

Pick: Memphis -5

Portland (-3) @ New Orleans (212 o/u)

My two favorite teams to watch! The Blazers flow offense against the Pelicans brow defense! So excited to watch this without the stress of a bet on it if I can stay awake with all this throat medicine in me.

Pass

Miami (-2) @ Denver (201 o/u)

Minuscule line for the best basketball team in the world against a very imperfect Nuggets team. Not a question.

Pick: Miami -2

Charlotte (189 o/u) @ Utah (-2)

Okay, again – I get it, Utah is better than their record. But are they really even a pretty good basketball team? I say no. They play Richard Jefferson serious minutes and use him – a lot – on offense. I like Trey Burke, Derrick Favors and Alec Burks, and I think Gordon Hayward can be great if his usage rate doesn’t need to be so high for them, but this team is just not ready to win a lot of NBA games yet.

Pick: Charlotte +2

Phoenix (210.5 o/u) @ LA Clippers (-8)

If I am awake for the start of this game then I am suing the makers of NyQuil. If I catch the start, I’ll end up taping my eyes open so I can see the whole thing. Fascinating match-up, but I can’t risk investing myself in it at given my current state. Ugh.

Pass

By |

Yesterday: 1-4 ( 1-1 with halftime bets)

On The Season: 36-28

Detroit @ Indiana (-10)

Sure, big spreads are scary. Sure, Detroit punished me last night. Still, I will not bet against INDY at home facing a mediocre team that is also coming off a grind fest against the other best team in the league, the Blazers. Detroit just played 53 minutes and nearly pulled off the upset of the season in the process. They’re gassed by now. Certainly a tough back-to-back for them as the Pacers/Blazers are a combined 41-7 (or something..don’t quote me). Detroit is pretty brutal against the spread and well, INDY is undefeated at the Arena formerly known as Conseco. C’mon, PG24.. don’t let us down. Cover.

Philadelphia @ Brooklyn (-10)

Oh.. sorry. I’m not betting on this, I just wanted to comment and say.. “Uhhh…gross.”

Washington @ New York (o/u 193.5)

I like the under of this game. Washington’s offense has struggled mightily on the road this season and New York.. well, that just speaks for itself. Both teams are averaging under 100 PPG and also both allowing under 100 PPG. Let’s play the numbers here.

Minnesota (-1.5) @ Boston

It’s been tough betting against Boston this season, and they are definitely playing well AND overachieving big time. Still, I think Minnesota has proven it can ball with some quality teams and Boston is still just “hanging in there” most nights. The T-Wolves live and die by the three ball  but it seems to be playing out O.K. for them considering K Love is hot, hot, hot right now. Barea, Rubio, Martin, Love – all solid from the outside and despite Boston’s great perimeter D so far, I think Love and crew get the best of them. The spread is low because it will be tight.. definitely a contrast in styles here but the Celts are gonna be trying awfully hard to keep pace. Let’s take the Wolves to cover.

San Antonio (-2.5) @ L.A. Clippers

S.A. finally has a night off and they are playing a talented but soft Clippers team.. even with CP3 at the helm, this team is not as good as people originally thought. I like SA to cover because well, the Spurs are just too solid and consistent.. even on the road they post a 9-1 record in their last ten and they have been great ATS so far as well. The Clippers have had notable struggles against Brooklyn and Boston while the Spurs have been red hot since their last loss at the hands of an amazing Pacers squad. Spurs are third in average score for and are currently fourth in average score allowed. Lock up a W .

By |

Yesterday’s Picks: 4-2

On The Season: 31-22

Tonight’s Action

Not a whole lot of games I’m into tonight. If I have learned ONE thing from my millions of gambling mistakes.. it is to not overextend your bankroll unless you’re really feelin’ it. That being said.. I am on fire as of the last 2-3 nights and there is a little value to be found today with these games. I’ll make a couple picks below that should work for you and if you are looking more insight, feel free to peep my main man Andy’s picks. Kid is 15 games over .500 on the season so proceed with confidence. OBB is hot, ladies and gentlemen… Free money, here!

L.A. Lakers @ Charlotte (-3, o/u 198.5)

It is super hard to predict who will win this match up. Take the UNDER, though, as it’s not difficult to forecast this game will be low scoring. Will Kobe be available? If so, will he even be 75% after putting in some moderate minutes here and there? The Bobcats are superb defensively and they play with tenacity every minute of every game, at least from what I’ve seen so far. The Lakers, on the other hand, are a little bit of a mess even with the return of the chosen one. I’m not too worried about L.A.’s porous defense giving up too many buckets, mainly because the Bobcats offense is equally as bad.. if not worse… (90.6 PPG). Charlotte has gone under in 6 of their last 7 at home, and again gamblers, this is what we wait for. All things go as planned and you will cashing in on this bet.

L.A. Clippers (-4.5) @ Washington 

CP3 is too talented to have his team thwarted by the likes of Brooklyn and Cleveland and I strongly feel that they’re gonna throttle the Wizards. Look for another solid performance by Paul and company as they take down a Wizards squad that has been plagued with injuries to start the season. Washington is full of talent.. and young talent.. but they are about 0-100 when facing quality teams and Chris Paul recently called this a “must win”. Jordan and Blake are gonna go buck wild and Paul will drop something like 20 pts and 11 assists tonight. Maybe 2-3 steals. TAKE LA. 

Atlanta (-1) @ New York 

Pick a winner with a mediocre team versing a terrible team. Not terrible odds. Plus, I have been betting against the Knicks all season and it’s worked out well. Take ATL to cover.

San Antonio (-6.5) @ Utah

Ok, so.. SA missed covering last night by 2 points and they have been on the road a lot lately. This doesn’t change my mind seeing how I’m  not super sold on Utah’s “huge win” over Denver last night. I like Favors, Burke and Hayward. A lot, actually. But, I like Manu shooting an unreal 54% over his last 9, with a lot of those FGs coming from 3-point land. Duncan is conservative not just in his approach but also his minutes, but that won’t stop him from securing another double-double tonight. Veterans will topple the youth in an intriguing matchup and this spread is fairly low considering the Spurs are ON FIRE. Look for them to cover tonight with ease.

By |

Yesterday: 4-4
Season: 83-67

Only two games on tonight, so this should be quick and painless.

LA Clippers (-2.5) @ Brooklyn (195.5 o/u) 

Brooklyn looked like a different team with Deron Williams back out there against the Celtics on Tuesday, and the Clippers had to play a great game to get past Boston last night. However I really don’t like this match-up for Brooklyn: super-athletic team that runs the floor against a slow, way below-average defense spells trouble to me. If Brook Lopez can get going then maybe the Nets can keep it close, but I like the Clips and the over here.
Pick: Clippers -2.5 and Over 195.5

Houston (212.5 o/u) @ Portland (-3.5)

Wow, this is a good one. I am very excited for this match-up of high-scoring teams that like to get out and run. I also think that this is an interesting match-up for both sides, as Houston loves to score at the rim and Portland mostly scores away from it. Conversely, both teams also defend well where they score well: Houston has Dwight on the interior, and Matthews/Batum defend well on the perimeter. Should be interesting to see how they play this one. If I had to bet on a team I’d take Houston at +3.5 because this game feels more even than the differential to me, but I want to be able to openly route for the Blazers tonight so I’m sticking with the over.

Pick: Over 212.5

By |

Yesterday: 2-5
Season: 79-63

Orlando (189.5 o/u) @ Charlotte (-6)

Vucevic is questionable again, the Hornetcats are coming off a big, swagger-inducing victory, and the Charlotte fans might actually have something to get fired up about. The over is tempting here, but only if Orlando can shoot the ball, and against this defense I’m not so sure.
Pick: Charlotte -6

LA Clippers (-6) @ Boston (196.5 o/u)

Okay, so Boston has over-performed and LAC has under-performed so far this year, right? I feel pretty good about the Clippers here, even with Doc’s supposedly emotional return to Boston. I don’t buy that “juicy” storyline – I think it was just time for both sides to move on. The over/under is tricky because despite taking part in some high-scoring games lately, Boston’s pacing has grinded to a halt in December. In 4 games, they are averaging just 91.5 possessions per 48 minutes, which would be good for worst in the league over the full season.
Pick: LA Clippers -6

San Antonio (-11) @ Milwaukee (193 o/u)

2nd night of a back-to-back for both teams, total trap game. Could be a pretty low quality game. Not touching it.
Pass

Detroit (202 o/u) @ New Orleans (-3.5)

I really want to bet Detroit in this one, but New Orleans has been hanging tough without the ‘Brow with strong play from Holiday and Anderson. They could shred this Pistons defense pretty efficiently, I think. I also am continuing to take the over on any Pistons game against a league average or better offense.
Pick: Over 202 and New Orleans -3.5

Philadelphia (209.5 o/u) @ Minnesota (-12)

Wow, so Minnesota would have to blow out two horrific Eastern Conference defenses in a row to cover here, huh? Sold.
Pick: Minnesota -12 

Chicago (184 o/u) @ New York (-2.5)

Is anyone actually watching this game between the league’s two biggest markets?
Pass

Oklahoma City (-6) @ Memphis (191.5 o/u)

I like OKC to cover here with ease. Memphis has proven me wrong a few times this year but I still think I have a good feel for them. If they prevent OKC from covering tonight I’ll consider changing my mind about Z-Bo and the Boys.
Pick: OKC -6

Utah (201.5 o/u) @ Sacramento (-7)

Seriously so glad there’s a ridiculous Over/Under in this game because I did not want to bet on either team here.
Pick: Under 201.5 

Dallas (208.5 o/u) @ Golden State (-5)

Both teams coming off tough losses, two high-scoring teams, but Warriors have the better defense. Taking the Dubs here.
Pick: Golden State -5