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Yesterday: 2-3
Season: 136-124

Woke up sick today, so I’m sorry if I come across crabbier than usual in this post. I am a miserable person when I am sick, and just horrible to be around – so be thankful you only get Internet me and not the full version.

Washington (202.5 o/u) @ Detroit (-2.5)

Okay, Detroit should be better than they’ve been, but against Washington they seem to have problems. I can see Nene mucking up their frontcourt advantage a little bit, and John Wall definitely can shred the Pistons wobbly defense. I can’t pick against Detroit at home in this match-up, because I still have faith in them, but I can pick against either team defending at all.

Pick: Over 202.5

Dallas (214.5 o/u) @ Minnesota (-4.5) 

Another huge over/under that feels really safe to me. These are two teams that seem to have absolutely zero interest in defending the rim most nights and that have been known to score 60 points in any given half. I gotta take the over – but I also want to take Minne. They really need to start winning important games, and with Dallas ahead of them in the standings, this would qualify as an important game. I trust the Wolves, for some reason, despite having watched them a ton this year.

Pick: Over 214.5 and Minnesota -4.5

Chicago (181.5 o/u) @ Memphis (-5)

Memphis scored 120 points last night and now the over/under line for a game they are playing in 181.5… I am so angry because these are two awful offensive teams but neither is anywhere near full strength and it just could be a sloppy mess that ends up in the high 90s by complete accident. Memphis seems to be getting things right, though, and Chicago is still a disaster.

Pick: Memphis -5

Portland (-3) @ New Orleans (212 o/u)

My two favorite teams to watch! The Blazers flow offense against the Pelicans brow defense! So excited to watch this without the stress of a bet on it if I can stay awake with all this throat medicine in me.

Pass

Miami (-2) @ Denver (201 o/u)

Minuscule line for the best basketball team in the world against a very imperfect Nuggets team. Not a question.

Pick: Miami -2

Charlotte (189 o/u) @ Utah (-2)

Okay, again – I get it, Utah is better than their record. But are they really even a pretty good basketball team? I say no. They play Richard Jefferson serious minutes and use him – a lot – on offense. I like Trey Burke, Derrick Favors and Alec Burks, and I think Gordon Hayward can be great if his usage rate doesn’t need to be so high for them, but this team is just not ready to win a lot of NBA games yet.

Pick: Charlotte +2

Phoenix (210.5 o/u) @ LA Clippers (-8)

If I am awake for the start of this game then I am suing the makers of NyQuil. If I catch the start, I’ll end up taping my eyes open so I can see the whole thing. Fascinating match-up, but I can’t risk investing myself in it at given my current state. Ugh.

Pass

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Yesterday: 5-1
Season: 94-74

Houston (-6.5) @ Sacramento (215 o/u)

This will be an interesting big-man match-up with DMC checking Dwight. I gotta say, Sacramento has killed me this year, and I’m a little bit scared about the small sample size they have with Isaiah playing starter’s minutes. Even so, numbers like Houston here (and the under, but that’s a stupid bet so I’m not doing it. That’s why numbers on their own don’t work.) and I’m riding Houston on this one. 

Pick: Houston -6.5

Minnesota (-3) @ Memphis (196.5 o/u) 

The league’s #2 vs. #30 in Pace. This is always a weird type of match-up, but I think Memphis gets baited into trying to run with Minne here. I’m not confident that they’ll put up enough points, though, to make the over bet worth it. Still, below Memphis it says “Marc Gasol – OUT”, and until that changes, this is very easy to call. 

Pick: Minnesota -3

Portland (-4) @ Detroit (209.5 o/u)

Portland just hung 139 on Philly while giving up 105. Some might say “What are the chances of such a high-scoring game two nights in a row?” To which I would answer, “Don’t be an idiot.” 

Pick: Portland -4 and OVER 209.5

Orlando (205.5 o/u) @ Oklahoma City (-13.5)

Two teams that like to play fast (OKC is 4th in Pace, Orlando 10th), and based on scoring per possession data would technically account for 206.3 points in a game, without adjusting for defensive match-up or style of play. If you adjust for defense, it gets a little shaky (202.9), and then when you account for the likely scores of this game (OKC probably winning by a decent margin at least) it gets dicey. Close games lead to late free throws which drives the score up. Blow outs lead to teams slowing it down near the end typically, leading to fewer points. 13.5 for OKC is a little bit too rich for me to take – I would personally put the line at -13, and wouldn’t have bet it unless it was lower than -12. 

Pick: Under 205.5 

New Orleans (204.5 o/u) @ Denver (-6.5)

At first glance, I like New Orleans on this line. They’ve been playing well without Davis (amazingly)and Denver has looked shaky (and the numbers back that up) as of late. Denver is always great at home – and my computer tells me they are still a better team than New Orleans (even though by my eye test I disagree – but that’s why they play actual games, to decide if me or my computer are smarter, right?) but the numbers say they are only 2-3 points better. Given that the difference in play lately (NOrleans sharp, Denver sloppy) might offset Denver’s home court advantage, Pellies at +6.5 isn’t terrible. It’s also not worth betting on. Great game to watch, though. 

Pass

Golden State (-1) @ Phoenix (209.5 o/u)

If Phoenix wins this game I’ll stop betting against them and give Eli a lot of credit. I’m already off the Golden State train until Iggy gets back. That being said, this is a sneaky big game for both teams. My computer doesn’t like a bet on this match-up – but I do. Experience matters in the NBA and with a close line like this, I’m basically betting on a winner and loser. More than 55 times out of 100, I like Golden State. Bet it. 

Pick: Golden State -1

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Yesterday: 2-5
Season: 79-63

Orlando (189.5 o/u) @ Charlotte (-6)

Vucevic is questionable again, the Hornetcats are coming off a big, swagger-inducing victory, and the Charlotte fans might actually have something to get fired up about. The over is tempting here, but only if Orlando can shoot the ball, and against this defense I’m not so sure.
Pick: Charlotte -6

LA Clippers (-6) @ Boston (196.5 o/u)

Okay, so Boston has over-performed and LAC has under-performed so far this year, right? I feel pretty good about the Clippers here, even with Doc’s supposedly emotional return to Boston. I don’t buy that “juicy” storyline – I think it was just time for both sides to move on. The over/under is tricky because despite taking part in some high-scoring games lately, Boston’s pacing has grinded to a halt in December. In 4 games, they are averaging just 91.5 possessions per 48 minutes, which would be good for worst in the league over the full season.
Pick: LA Clippers -6

San Antonio (-11) @ Milwaukee (193 o/u)

2nd night of a back-to-back for both teams, total trap game. Could be a pretty low quality game. Not touching it.
Pass

Detroit (202 o/u) @ New Orleans (-3.5)

I really want to bet Detroit in this one, but New Orleans has been hanging tough without the ‘Brow with strong play from Holiday and Anderson. They could shred this Pistons defense pretty efficiently, I think. I also am continuing to take the over on any Pistons game against a league average or better offense.
Pick: Over 202 and New Orleans -3.5

Philadelphia (209.5 o/u) @ Minnesota (-12)

Wow, so Minnesota would have to blow out two horrific Eastern Conference defenses in a row to cover here, huh? Sold.
Pick: Minnesota -12 

Chicago (184 o/u) @ New York (-2.5)

Is anyone actually watching this game between the league’s two biggest markets?
Pass

Oklahoma City (-6) @ Memphis (191.5 o/u)

I like OKC to cover here with ease. Memphis has proven me wrong a few times this year but I still think I have a good feel for them. If they prevent OKC from covering tonight I’ll consider changing my mind about Z-Bo and the Boys.
Pick: OKC -6

Utah (201.5 o/u) @ Sacramento (-7)

Seriously so glad there’s a ridiculous Over/Under in this game because I did not want to bet on either team here.
Pick: Under 201.5 

Dallas (208.5 o/u) @ Golden State (-5)

Both teams coming off tough losses, two high-scoring teams, but Warriors have the better defense. Taking the Dubs here.
Pick: Golden State -5

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Yesterday’s Picks: 3-4

On The Season: 18-14

Tonight’s Action

Miami Heat (+3) at Indiana: I know, I know. Indiana is undefeated at home, and this is virtually a preview of the Eastern Conference finals in many’s opinion. However, coming after a grind of a road trip, they’re definitely a little worn down. I think this match up will come down to the two best players on the court and the obvious winner here will be King James. Paul George has proven he can play with the best in the world but he has done it far less consistently than the company he aims to keep. The Pacers were throttled recently by the Thunder and I predict that even without DWade, the Heat keep them at bay. Miami being an underdog is a rare gift in my opinion and they will be bringing their A-Game to the arena formerly known as Conseco. Miami all the way.

New York at Cleveland (o/u 188.5)

To say both these squads are struggling would be a massive understatement. That being said, it’s important to note that they both allow under 100 PPG and Cleveland is particularly solid at home. The Knicks have surged a little of late but had their souls crushed by Boston, losing by 41 and getting booed of their own, sacred home court. I think it’ll be low scoring with both teams being somewhat of a disaster so far. Knicks have been under in 6 out of their last 7 road games, and Cleveland has been under 4 of their last 6. Let’s hope these trends continue. UNDER.

Boston (+2.) at Brooklynn

Boston continues to overachieve under the leadership of Brad Stevens and they have shocked plenty of people in the process. Brooklyn, on the other hand, has been simply awful and seem destined to occupy the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. They’re 2-6 at home and the Celtics are 6-1 against the spread when facing opponents with losing records. I’ll take my hometown boys here at +2 , as the wrong team is clearly favored in this one.

Oklahoma (-5) at Atlanta

I like OKC here. Hawks fans are all jazzed up because they recently destroyed the 6-12 Cavs. OKC fans are jazzed up because they recently destroyed the 18-2 Pacers. It will be a close game throughout as Atlanta continues to grow as a team but the Durant factor will eventually decide the outcome. In the past 10 games, the Thunder are a sizzling 9-1 and it’s gonna stay that way, even against a very solid Atlanta roster.

San Antonio (-7.5) at Toronto

The raptors will NOT punish me again tonight. SA is gonna dominate.

By |

Yesterday: 3-4
Season: 77-58

Miami (190 o/u) @ Indiana (-3)

Dwyane Wade is questionable, but even so it’s hard to bet against the defending champs. Indiana is back from a brutal road trip where they had to play Portland, OKC and San Antonio. This one is hard to call, but I’m breaking with my boy Capps on this one and  going with the best player alive here. 
Pick: Miami +3

New York (188.5 o/u) @ Cleveland (-2.5)

A tale of two messes. God, this could get ugly. New York was hot until Boston nuked them on Sunday @ MSG. Both of these teams are defensively lacking, but also play at rates too slow for me to feel good about the over. Ugh.
Pass

San Antonio (-7.5) @ Toronto (198 o/u)

The line looks solid for San Antonio, but after Sacramento handed me my ass yesterday I’m not going to touch a team that will be emotionally charged coming off a trade. The o/u looks high to me, though.
Pick: Under 198

Minnesota (203.5 o/u) @ Detroit (-1)

Neither team can defend, both play at fast clips, and Kevin Love is “probable.”
Pick: Over 203.5 and Minnesota +1

Boston (193 o/u) @ Brooklyn (-2)

Until Brooklyn wins a game I’m not betting on them when they’re favored. No.
Pick: Boston +2 and Under 193

Oklahoma City (-5) @ Atlanta (203 o/u)

203 sounds perfect for this game. I hate -5 lines because that indicates a close game, and last minute free throws can eff that up pretty good. Not touching this one.
Pass

Milwaukee (182.5 o/u) @ Chicago (-7.5)

The line was late coming in on this one today (UPDATED: It’s in, and it sucks anyway). With Luol Deng doubtful, and Milwaukee not exactly looking primed to take advantage of that, this is a gross match-up. I for one am not going to watch or bet on it.
Pass

Phoenix (206 o/u) @ LA Lakers (-3)

I don’t like both these teams to score over 100, especially since the Lakers offense will still be adjusting to Kobe being back.
Pick: Under 206

By |

Yesterday’s Picks: 2-2

On The Season: 15-10

Tonight’s Action

L.A. Clippers (-8.5, over 207) at Philadelphia : Despite the large 8.5 spread, I still very much like the Clippers here. I also love the over considering these are two of the most electric offenses in the league right now and both of them are in the top 10 in PPG. What’s even more perfect is that they are also both allowing over 100 PPG. Look for CP to set the tone and with Blake actually looking more like a dominant big man this year, the future is bright. Paul is no doubt going to establish his dominance and I like how Griffin’s looking to rebound more of as late (Up 2.5 per game from last year). At least tonight, against a Sixers team that is 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 contests. Lots of points and an L.A. win is in the forecast.

Golden State (-5.5) at Charlotte 

This game will truly be a tale of two cities as offense meets defense tonight at Charlotte. Let’s just say the Warriors will be out to play, though. GSW is nothing short of prolific when it comes to putting the biscuit in the basket and haven’t even hit their stride offensively in my opinion. Wouldn’t call them “great” on the other side of the ball but they are somewhat pesky, holding opponents to just 42% shooting, good for 6th in the NBA. Charlotte, meanwhile, is horrific with the rock but their D has surged as of late. Unfortunately, they are going to spread super-thin while trying to keep up with the likes of Thompson, Barnes and Curry on the outside.  Fun fact: Klay and Steph have combined for more three pointers than several ENTIRE NBA teams up to this point in the season. Bet with confidence because they are going to be putting up points in a Curry – I mean hurry.

Orlando at Memphis (-9)

First rule of sports betting: Stay away from your favorite team unless it’s a lock. Well, I’m going disagree with my man main, Andy for once, because I truly think this Memphis squad can cover this spread. It has been a rough start so far if you pledge allegiance to the Grizz but don’t fret.. there is silver lining. Kinda. Mike Conley has been playing amazing basketball and is slowly emerging as one of the elite guards in the league. Go ahead – try to list a PG playing as well and as efficient as him who is not named Curry or Paul. I dare ya. Randolph has struggled a little with his shot since the loss of Gasol and is kinda banged up injury wise. Tonight could be a good time for him to get in the swing of things again though as Orlando is pretty soft inside, particularly without Vucevic. If Memphis can stop Afflalo’s outside shot, this game won’t be as close as everyone thinks it will be.

Portland (-7, o/u 204) at Utah

I hope you all saw my tweet last time Portland played Utah because by now you’re rich. I was a big fan of the 10.5 point spread the last time these teams met and I’m a fan of the 7 point spread now. Portland is just too hot even with that tough loss to Dallas and they are scoring (and allowing) so many baskets it’s impossible to not take this over. Blazer games have gone over 5 straight times and it doesn’t appear to be slowing down tonight against a Jazz team allowing 102 PPG. Take the over, take the Blazers.

Dallas (-4.5) at Sacramento

I will admit, I was not sold on Dallas being any sort of contender this year. After watching them take down the Western Conference leading Trailblazers, though, I am singing a different tune. No, I don’t think they can win a title, but they are good enough to cover against a Kings team that literally has zero identity right now. Sacramento’s line up just exploded and is in need of some serious reformation. Barring an Isaiah Thomas bust out for the Kings, I think Dallas continues to gather momentum in the west and covers with ease tonight.