As promised, I’m going to clue you all in today on who I liked as contenders before the playoffs started, and who I am favoring now that we’ve seen more than half of each first round series unfold. Needless to say, my thoughts have already shifted momentously – and they probably will again a few more times before we get to the NBA Finals in June.
Before the Playoffs started, I really thought I knew where I stood on all 16 teams. I ranked my assessment of the teams based on their ability to truly contend for a title as follows:
1. San Antonio
2. Miami
3. Oklahoma City
4. LA Clippers
5. Houston
6. Golden State
7. Indiana
8. Memphis
9. Portland
10. Chicago
11. Brooklyn
12. Dallas
13. Toronto
14. Washington
15. Atlanta
16. Charlotte
After watching (and thoroughly enjoying, may I add) the first round of the playoffs so far, I have changed my thoughts on quite a few of these teams. Here is my new, current assessment:
1. Miami
2. LA Clippers
3. San Antonio
4. Memphis
5. Oklahoma City
6. Portland
7. Golden State
8. Dallas
9. Houston
10. Toronto
11. Brooklyn
12. Washington
13. Indiana
14. Atlanta 15. Chicago 16. Charlotte
As you see, it now goes Miami, then all EIGHT Western Conference Playoff teams in a row. Seriously, though – don’t you feel like even Dallas or Houston could beat the Raptors, Nets, or Pacers right now in a seven game series? The Pacers might seem a bit low at 13 – but the fact is, I wouldn’t favor them over Washington in a series right now – their most likely opponent, should they survive the Hawks here in Round 1.
The toughest parts of this ranking for me were between 4 and 7 and 11 and 14 – thus sections seem fairly muddled – but the top seems pretty defined to me right now. Miami has the easiest path to the Finals, and we know that the Heat in top gear can beat anyone on any given day. Not a good sign for the contenders out West that there is little chance of them being taken out prior to the Finals.
My prediction right now for the NBA Finals? I would personally pick Heat-Clippers right now. That was my pick in mid-March, and I’ve stuck to it as my personal pick for the Finals match-up. Memphis or San Antonio are the most likely spoilers, but how fun would a Memphis-LAC second round series be? Man, I hope we get to see that – and after last night, it looks like we will.
Woke up sick today, so I’m sorry if I come across crabbier than usual in this post. I am a miserable person when I am sick, and just horrible to be around – so be thankful you only get Internet me and not the full version.
Washington (202.5 o/u) @ Detroit (-2.5)
Okay, Detroit should be better than they’ve been, but against Washington they seem to have problems. I can see Nene mucking up their frontcourt advantage a little bit, and John Wall definitely can shred the Pistons wobbly defense. I can’t pick against Detroit at home in this match-up, because I still have faith in them, but I can pick against either team defending at all.
Pick: Over 202.5
Dallas (214.5 o/u) @ Minnesota (-4.5)
Another huge over/under that feels really safe to me. These are two teams that seem to have absolutely zero interest in defending the rim most nights and that have been known to score 60 points in any given half. I gotta take the over – but I also want to take Minne. They really need to start winning important games, and with Dallas ahead of them in the standings, this would qualify as an important game. I trust the Wolves, for some reason, despite having watched them a ton this year.
Pick: Over 214.5 and Minnesota -4.5
Chicago (181.5 o/u) @ Memphis (-5)
Memphis scored 120 points last night and now the over/under line for a game they are playing in 181.5… I am so angry because these are two awful offensive teams but neither is anywhere near full strength and it just could be a sloppy mess that ends up in the high 90s by complete accident. Memphis seems to be getting things right, though, and Chicago is still a disaster.
Pick: Memphis -5
Portland (-3) @ New Orleans (212 o/u)
My two favorite teams to watch! The Blazers flow offense against the Pelicans brow defense! So excited to watch this without the stress of a bet on it if I can stay awake with all this throat medicine in me.
Pass
Miami (-2) @ Denver (201 o/u)
Minuscule line for the best basketball team in the world against a very imperfect Nuggets team. Not a question.
Pick: Miami -2
Charlotte (189 o/u) @ Utah (-2)
Okay, again – I get it, Utah is better than their record. But are they really even a pretty good basketball team? I say no. They play Richard Jefferson serious minutes and use him – a lot – on offense. I like Trey Burke, Derrick Favors and Alec Burks, and I think Gordon Hayward can be great if his usage rate doesn’t need to be so high for them, but this team is just not ready to win a lot of NBA games yet.
Pick: Charlotte +2
Phoenix (210.5 o/u) @ LA Clippers (-8)
If I am awake for the start of this game then I am suing the makers of NyQuil. If I catch the start, I’ll end up taping my eyes open so I can see the whole thing. Fascinating match-up, but I can’t risk investing myself in it at given my current state. Ugh.
Vucevic is questionable again, the Hornetcats are coming off a big, swagger-inducing victory, and the Charlotte fans might actually have something to get fired up about. The over is tempting here, but only if Orlando can shoot the ball, and against this defense I’m not so sure. Pick: Charlotte -6
LA Clippers (-6) @ Boston (196.5 o/u)
Okay, so Boston has over-performed and LAC has under-performed so far this year, right? I feel pretty good about the Clippers here, even with Doc’s supposedly emotional return to Boston. I don’t buy that “juicy” storyline – I think it was just time for both sides to move on. The over/under is tricky because despite taking part in some high-scoring games lately, Boston’s pacing has grinded to a halt in December. In 4 games, they are averaging just 91.5 possessions per 48 minutes, which would be good for worst in the league over the full season. Pick: LA Clippers -6
San Antonio (-11) @ Milwaukee (193 o/u)
2nd night of a back-to-back for both teams, total trap game. Could be a pretty low quality game. Not touching it. Pass
Detroit (202 o/u) @ New Orleans (-3.5)
I really want to bet Detroit in this one, but New Orleans has been hanging tough without the ‘Brow with strong play from Holiday and Anderson. They could shred this Pistons defense pretty efficiently, I think. I also am continuing to take the over on any Pistons game against a league average or better offense. Pick: Over 202 and New Orleans -3.5
Philadelphia (209.5 o/u) @ Minnesota (-12)
Wow, so Minnesota would have to blow out two horrific Eastern Conference defenses in a row to cover here, huh? Sold. Pick: Minnesota -12
Chicago (184 o/u) @ New York (-2.5)
Is anyone actually watching this game between the league’s two biggest markets? Pass
Oklahoma City (-6) @ Memphis (191.5 o/u)
I like OKC to cover here with ease. Memphis has proven me wrong a few times this year but I still think I have a good feel for them. If they prevent OKC from covering tonight I’ll consider changing my mind about Z-Bo and the Boys. Pick: OKC -6
Utah (201.5 o/u) @ Sacramento (-7)
Seriously so glad there’s a ridiculous Over/Under in this game because I did not want to bet on either team here. Pick: Under 201.5
Dallas (208.5 o/u) @ Golden State (-5)
Both teams coming off tough losses, two high-scoring teams, but Warriors have the better defense. Taking the Dubs here. Pick: Golden State -5
Miami Heat (+3) at Indiana: I know, I know. Indiana is undefeated at home, and this is virtually a preview of the Eastern Conference finals in many’s opinion. However, coming after a grind of a road trip, they’re definitely a little worn down. I think this match up will come down to the two best players on the court and the obvious winner here will be King James. Paul George has proven he can play with the best in the world but he has done it far less consistently than the company he aims to keep. The Pacers were throttled recently by the Thunder and I predict that even without DWade, the Heat keep them at bay. Miami being an underdog is a rare gift in my opinion and they will be bringing their A-Game to the arena formerly known as Conseco. Miami all the way.
New York at Cleveland (o/u 188.5)
To say both these squads are struggling would be a massive understatement. That being said, it’s important to note that they both allow under 100 PPG and Cleveland is particularly solid at home. The Knicks have surged a little of late but had their souls crushed by Boston, losing by 41 and getting booed of their own, sacred home court. I think it’ll be low scoring with both teams being somewhat of a disaster so far. Knicks have been under in 6 out of their last 7 road games, and Cleveland has been under 4 of their last 6. Let’s hope these trends continue. UNDER.
Boston (+2.) at Brooklynn
Boston continues to overachieve under the leadership of Brad Stevens and they have shocked plenty of people in the process. Brooklyn, on the other hand, has been simply awful and seem destined to occupy the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. They’re 2-6 at home and the Celtics are 6-1 against the spread when facing opponents with losing records. I’ll take my hometown boys here at +2 , as the wrong team is clearly favored in this one.
Oklahoma (-5) at Atlanta
I like OKC here. Hawks fans are all jazzed up because they recently destroyed the 6-12 Cavs. OKC fans are jazzed up because they recently destroyed the 18-2 Pacers. It will be a close game throughout as Atlanta continues to grow as a team but the Durant factor will eventually decide the outcome. In the past 10 games, the Thunder are a sizzling 9-1 and it’s gonna stay that way, even against a very solid Atlanta roster.
San Antonio (-7.5) at Toronto
The raptors will NOT punish me again tonight. SA is gonna dominate.
Dwyane Wade is questionable, but even so it’s hard to bet against the defending champs. Indiana is back from a brutal road trip where they had to play Portland, OKC and San Antonio. This one is hard to call, but I’m breaking with my boy Capps on this one and going with the best player alive here.
Pick: Miami +3
New York (188.5 o/u) @ Cleveland (-2.5)
A tale of two messes. God, this could get ugly. New York was hot until Boston nuked them on Sunday @ MSG. Both of these teams are defensively lacking, but also play at rates too slow for me to feel good about the over. Ugh. Pass
San Antonio (-7.5) @ Toronto (198 o/u)
The line looks solid for San Antonio, but after Sacramento handed me my ass yesterday I’m not going to touch a team that will be emotionally charged coming off a trade. The o/u looks high to me, though. Pick: Under 198
Minnesota (203.5 o/u) @ Detroit (-1)
Neither team can defend, both play at fast clips, and Kevin Love is “probable.” Pick: Over 203.5 and Minnesota +1
Boston (193 o/u) @ Brooklyn (-2)
Until Brooklyn wins a game I’m not betting on them when they’re favored. No. Pick: Boston +2 and Under 193
Oklahoma City (-5) @ Atlanta (203 o/u)
203 sounds perfect for this game. I hate -5 lines because that indicates a close game, and last minute free throws can eff that up pretty good. Not touching this one. Pass
Milwaukee (182.5 o/u) @ Chicago (-7.5)
The line was late coming in on this one today (UPDATED: It’s in, and it sucks anyway). With Luol Deng doubtful, and Milwaukee not exactly looking primed to take advantage of that, this is a gross match-up. I for one am not going to watch or bet on it. Pass
Phoenix (206 o/u) @ LA Lakers (-3)
I don’t like both these teams to score over 100, especially since the Lakers offense will still be adjusting to Kobe being back. Pick: Under 206
Omer Asik is still very tradeable, despite the pouting.
By Andy Seidel
Last night, the first domino of the NBA trade season fell hard when Masai Ujiri forced the Kings at gunpoint negotiated a deal that sends Rudy Gay to Sacramento along with Aaron Gray and Quincy Acy, bringing back Chuck Hayes, Patrick Patterson, Greivis Vasquez and John Salmons to the Raps. That the Raptors are sellers this year is not a surprise, but the fact that they found a deal for Gay so quickly is. Either way, with free agent signees from the past off-season eligible to be traded on December 15th, there is likely to be a lot of action on the NBA trade circuit in the coming weeks. That inspired me to come up with the All-NBA Tradable team, highlighting the players most likely to be moved by the February 20th deadline. Here it goes:
PG – Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors
Call this a lock – Lowry will be traded, probably sooner than later. A serviceable point guard who has occasionally shown flashes of greater potential, the acquisition of Vasquez from the Kings just made him more expendable than he was already, and remember – he’s not one of Masai’s guys. Brian Colangelo signed him, and Ujiri seems determined to purge those players from the roster. What’s more, Lowry as a starting point guard screams “treading water” for a team, which is something the very smart Raptors front office has zero interest in doing after the past decade of crippling mediocrity. However Lowry as a back-up? That could work for a team trying to improve their bench and make a run at the playoffs this season. His $6.2 million expiring contract makes him very trade-able, also.
Likely Destinations: The Lakers are going to pretty much have to sell the idea of Steve Nash playing meaningful minutes pretty soon, and Steve Blake is the only other true point guard they have (although it’s been fun watching Jodie Meeks and Jordan Farmar have free reign of the ball this year in D’Antoni’s system) but the salaries are tricky here for a trade. The Raps will absolutely not take back any salary beyond this season for Lowry, so this would have to be a three team deal to work.
This was the toughest spot on the roster to choose a starter for – DeRozan in Toronto is VERY trade-able as well, and GM’s like him way more than they like Rudy, and that’s without even mentioning Dion Waiters – but Shumpert is so clearly unhappy and unwanted in New York that he pretty much has to be traded at this point. The damage is clearly done – between him blowing up at Melo in the huddle, blatantly ignoring JR Smith on the ground, and telling a reporter in the locker room that he was “mad at everything. Including you.” This guy needs a change of scenery, and that’s hilarious because he is by far the best future asset the Knicks have considering that they have no draft picks until 2052.
Likely Destinations: I heard a rumor about Nick Collison and a 2014 1st Rounder from OKC for Shump, which is interesting – the Knicks definitely need a PF not named Kenyon or Amar’e, and Steven Adams has kind of made Collison expendable – but this trade would be such an out-and-out win for the Thunder I can only half believe it. Except then I remember that somehow Mike Woodson has convinced himself and ownership that Shumpert is about 1/3 as valuable as he really is, and I start picturing Shump in Thunder Blue, terrorizing guards with Westbrook. Good god, please let this happen.
Luol Deng could be on the block. Tom Thibodeau could also go Rambo on the Bulls front office if that happens, though.
SF – Luol Deng, Chicago Bulls
This is sad, because Deng, along with Noah, is the ultimate Thibodeau-era Bull. His willingness and ability to play super long minutes and lock-down defense is impressive, and he can put up points when needed as well. He’s also on a $14.25 million expiring contract, so trade scenarios get interesting with him. I can’t believe that the Bulls will take back any long term salary for him, but since they won’t be in the championship run this year without D-Rose, I think Deng’s days in Chi-City are probably numbered. Sorry Thibs.
Likely Destinations: Anywhere that can swing the salary and wants to win now. Deng is a very valuable piece, and as a rental for a wannabe contender he makes a lot of sense. Memphis, if they decide they want to go for the playoffs might be interested in Deng’s services. The trouble is a lot of contenders only have expensive pieces to send back, and the salaries are tough to balance here. San Antonio is my dream Deng destination – he would fit in 100% from day one – but that won’t happen. Look for him to land somewhere semi-irrelevant like Milwaukee, Atlanta or Detroit – which is really too bad.
PF – Greg Monroe, Detroit Pistons
The Detroit Pistons want to win this season, and with Drummond playing out of his mind, that looks like a real possibility. However the spacing on offense is still cramped, and right now Josh Smith is playing out on the perimeter with the ball far too much. Teams just sag off of him, and he shoots jumpers from 15-25 feet, which is literally a worst-case scenario for a Pistons possession every single time. Josh Smith jumpers should just start counting as turnovers unless Drummond gets the rebound.
Back to Monroe, though, he has serious value on the market. His contract for this year is cap-friendly at less than $5 million, but he’s due to be a restricted free agent and wants max-level money. Someone will probably pay that, even if Monroe has been a nice offensive but lacking defensive player so far in his 3 and a quarter NBA seasons. But it won’t be Detroit; not with Smith locked up, Jennings locked up and Drummond due for a very big payday in the near future.
Likely Destinations: New Orleans Pelicans supposedly want another big body to pair with Anthony Davis, but personally I like what they have going with the Jason Smith-Ryan Anderson combo next to the ‘Brow (even if they can’t defend anyone). An interesting thought is the San Antonio Spurs offering up Danny Green. This is highly unlikely – Pop doesn’t let “his” guys get traded often – but it could be a good move for both the Western Conference playoffs this year when the Spurs will face some big bodies, and the future when Duncan inevitably hangs it up. We’ll see what happens, but Monroe could definitely be moved.
C – Omer Asik, Houston Rockets
Similar to Shump, except worse. After he supposedly refused to play for the team earlier this season after demanding a trade for the second time it became clear that this situation is not going to continue much longer. He didn’t work next to Dwight Howard in the early going this season anyway, and he’s very expensive to be a back-up – remember, he’s due $15 million next season, but his cap-hit for the team that acquires him will only be $8 million because of the weird structure of his contract. This, along with his excellent rim protection, makes him a very tradable piece this season. However Houston supposedly wants a lottery pick for Asik, which is totally unrealistic. They will probably get a solid player back, and maybe a future asset, but certainly nothing of value in the loaded 2014 draft. Look for them to make the move between December 15th and 19th, because any new free agent signees can be traded after the 15th, but any pieces acquired before the 19th can be flipped again this season. Houston wants to have total flexibility with this roster, so this trade will likely happen fast.
Likely Destinations: Everyone loves the fake Ryan Anderson-Omer Asik trade, but that is not going to happen. Both teams think they have the better player – not a good starting point, even if the trade makes a lot of sense for both sides. The more likely scenarios I see are Portland for Robin Lopez, which I think makes some sense, or Philadelphia for Thaddeus Young. I personally love both of those trades, but if I had to pick one as more likely I would go with the Philly deal – they have more room to experiment, while the Blazers suddenly find themselves in Contender-Land and can’t risk messing that up.
Honorable Mention: DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors; Dion Waiters, Cleveland Cavaliers; Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks; Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks; Jordan Crawford, Boston Celtics; Evan Turner, Philadelphia 76ers; Zach Randolph, Memphis Grizzlies.
Oddball Baskets 