By |

Yesterday: 2-1
Season: 400-383

As promised, I’m going to clue you all in today on who I liked as contenders before the playoffs started, and who I am favoring now that we’ve seen more than half of each first round series unfold. Needless to say, my thoughts have already shifted momentously – and they probably will again a few more times before we get to the NBA Finals in June.

Before the Playoffs started, I really thought I knew where I stood on all 16 teams. I ranked my assessment of the teams based on their ability to truly contend for a title as follows:

1. San Antonio
2. Miami
3. Oklahoma City
4. LA Clippers
5. Houston
6. Golden State
7. Indiana
8. Memphis
9. Portland
10. Chicago
11. Brooklyn
12. Dallas
13. Toronto
14. Washington
15. Atlanta
16. Charlotte

After watching (and thoroughly enjoying, may I add) the first round of the playoffs so far, I have changed my thoughts on quite a few of these teams. Here is my new, current assessment:

1. Miami
2. LA Clippers
3. San Antonio
4. Memphis
5. Oklahoma City
6. Portland
7. Golden State
8. Dallas
9. Houston
10. Toronto
11. Brooklyn
12. Washington
13. Indiana
14. Atlanta
15. Chicago
16. Charlotte

As you see, it now goes Miami, then all EIGHT Western Conference Playoff teams in a row. Seriously, though – don’t you feel like even Dallas or Houston could beat the Raptors, Nets, or Pacers right now in a seven game series? The Pacers might seem a bit low at 13 – but the fact is, I wouldn’t favor them over Washington in a series right now – their most likely opponent, should they survive the Hawks here in Round 1.

The toughest parts of this ranking for me were between 4 and 7 and 11 and 14 – thus sections seem fairly muddled – but the top seems pretty defined to me right now. Miami has the easiest path to the Finals, and we know that the Heat in top gear can beat anyone on any given day. Not a good sign for the contenders out West that there is little chance of them being taken out prior to the Finals.

My prediction right now for the NBA Finals? I would personally pick Heat-Clippers right now. That was my pick in mid-March, and I’ve stuck to it as my personal pick for the Finals match-up. Memphis or San Antonio are the most likely spoilers, but how fun would a Memphis-LAC second round series be? Man, I hope we get to see that – and after last night, it looks like we will.

By |

Yesterday: 5-2
Season: 157-149

Memphis (194.5 o/u) @ Detroit (-2.5)

Detroit finds themselves against a Memphis team that can’t grit and grind against their huge front line. I dig it.

Pick: Detroit -2.5

Golden State (-3.5) @ Washington (203 o/u)

After a thrilling victory over Atlanta, Golden State moves on to the Wiz, who have dropped two in a row to good opponents – Dallas and Toronto – who weren’t quite as good as Golden State. The Warriors almost let the Hawks get away with one on Friday night – they hope to avoid the same mistakes this time around. I think they’re smart and talented enough to do so.

Pick: Golden State -3.5

Indiana (-8.5) @ Cleveland (186 o/u)

Potential trap game for the Pacers – but they’re still just so, so much better than the Cavs – who still aren’t even a league average offensive team, by the way.

Pick: Indiana -8.5 & Under 186

Toronto (198.5 o/u) @ Miami (-6.5)

Toronto against the defending champs on the road. I know they’re hot lately, but come on…

Pick: Miami -6.5

Boston (195.5 o/u) @ Oklahoma City (-9)

This line opened at BOS +11, and I LOVED it then. I’m okay with it now, but I’m a little more tentative. OKC has been baited into some close games by lesser teams at home this year, but I don’t have faith that the Celtics can keep it within single digits.

Pass

New York (202 o/u) @ Dallas (-6.5)

Betting against New York continuously until they fail to cover. I’m sorry for how absolutely ludicrous that is.

Pick: Dallas -6.5 & Under 202

Denver (-2.5) @ LA Lakers (203.5 o/u)

If Kendall Marshall goes Jeremy Lin on all of us then I don’t even know what to say/do. I am seriously terrified of betting against the Lakers right now, even though I like Denver in this one. Damn.

Pass

By |

Yesterday: 4-7
Season: 149-144

Eek, inching perilously close to .500 for the season after being up as many as 22. Not a good look. Let’s see what we have on the slate tonight…

Toronto (193.5 o/u) @ Washington (-3)

Toronto is on a crazy hot streak since the Rudy Gay trade, and a win tonight would make them the 4th team above .500 in the East currently. I just don’t see that happening, though, against John Wall and the Wizards. Still, I’m really conflicted over this game, especially after discovering that the Raptors are 9-7 on the road this year (Yeah! Crazy!). I’m punting.

Pass

New Orleans (-3) @ Boston (200 o/u) 

New Orleans is way more than 3 points better than Boston, first of all. Anthony Davis, Tyreke Evans, Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holiday are the four best players in this basketball game. The Celtics have also looked straight dreadful in their last six games. Like, crazy bad. I’m honestly worried about them winning a single game in January at this point.

Pick: New Orleans -3

Golden State (-3) @ Atlanta (205.5 o/u)

Man, this one is kinda tough. Golden State is coming off a really big, emotional win against the Heat, and the Hawks haven’t looked like a bad team since the Horford injury (well, besides the fact that they’ve only played against bad teams). I like the Warriors, though, having just an all-around great team right now.

Pick: Golden State -3

New York (207.5 o/u) @ Houston (-11.5)

Man, the Knicks get no respect. They beat San Antonio last night, and now they’re 11.5 point dogs to Houston?

…Thank god it’s lower than 15.

Pick: Houston -11.5

LA Clippers (-1.5) @ Dallas (204 o/u)

Dallas is good offensively and all, but I still don’t buy that they are just a good all-around team. The Clippers defense has quietly solidified while Blake Griffin has discovered his mean streak and electrified the offense. Not a hard choice here, although I’m predicting a shootout.

Pick: LA Clippers -1.5 & Over 204

Memphis (191.5 o/u) @ Denver (-4)

Denver sucks right now. I wouldn’t watch this game with your eyeballs.

Pass

Utah (196 o/u) @ LA Lakers (-3.5)

You do realize that both these defense are horrific, right?

Pick: Utah +3.5 & Over 196

By |

Yesterday: 6-4
Season: 144-132

Dallas (202.5 o/u) @ Washington (-2)

Big game for both teams – Dallas needs to beat Eastern Conference teams consistently to make the playoffs out West, while Washington needs to win games against good teams at home to solidify their position as one of the better teams in basketball hell the Eastern Conference. Should be a fun, close game with fast pace and lots of scoring. I like Washington’s defense down the stretch here, and Wall’s control of the game. I wish it was a pick ’em, but I’ll take two here.

Pick: Washington -2 & Over 202.5

Indiana (-6) @ Toronto (192.5 o/u)

Both teams on a back-to-back, Indiana on the road, Toronto playing well lately… yeah, trap game, but it’s the freakin’ Pacers.

Pick: Indiana -6

New Orleans (212.5 o/u) @ Minnesota (-6)

My three favorite teams to watch this season, in order: Portland, New Orleans, Minnesota. Anytime a combination of those teams play, I’m in heaven.

Pick: Over 212.5

Philadelphia (211.5 o/u) @ Denver (-9.5)

Denver’s offense is like, sneaky awful lately. I mean really bad. It’s hard to watch and that sucks. This 76ers defense could break them out of that slump – they run a really interesting defensive scheme that I simply call “No”. Still, I don’t love the over… Nuggets supposedly have good home court advantage, right? Because I have them as 7.5 points better than the Sixers on neutral courts. Hm…

Pick: Denver -9.5

Charlotte (195.5 o/u) @ LA Clippers (-11)

This doesn’t bode well for the Bobcats. I love betting on them because of that stingy defense, but the Clippers are a good defensive team too! Seriously, look it up – they are. I don’t know about the spread – it’s a little high for me – but can Charlotte score against the Clippers? This game won’t be played in the mid-80s or anything, but…

Pick: Under 195.5

By |

Yesterday: 1-4 ( 1-1 with halftime bets)

On The Season: 36-28

Detroit @ Indiana (-10)

Sure, big spreads are scary. Sure, Detroit punished me last night. Still, I will not bet against INDY at home facing a mediocre team that is also coming off a grind fest against the other best team in the league, the Blazers. Detroit just played 53 minutes and nearly pulled off the upset of the season in the process. They’re gassed by now. Certainly a tough back-to-back for them as the Pacers/Blazers are a combined 41-7 (or something..don’t quote me). Detroit is pretty brutal against the spread and well, INDY is undefeated at the Arena formerly known as Conseco. C’mon, PG24.. don’t let us down. Cover.

Philadelphia @ Brooklyn (-10)

Oh.. sorry. I’m not betting on this, I just wanted to comment and say.. “Uhhh…gross.”

Washington @ New York (o/u 193.5)

I like the under of this game. Washington’s offense has struggled mightily on the road this season and New York.. well, that just speaks for itself. Both teams are averaging under 100 PPG and also both allowing under 100 PPG. Let’s play the numbers here.

Minnesota (-1.5) @ Boston

It’s been tough betting against Boston this season, and they are definitely playing well AND overachieving big time. Still, I think Minnesota has proven it can ball with some quality teams and Boston is still just “hanging in there” most nights. The T-Wolves live and die by the three ball  but it seems to be playing out O.K. for them considering K Love is hot, hot, hot right now. Barea, Rubio, Martin, Love – all solid from the outside and despite Boston’s great perimeter D so far, I think Love and crew get the best of them. The spread is low because it will be tight.. definitely a contrast in styles here but the Celts are gonna be trying awfully hard to keep pace. Let’s take the Wolves to cover.

San Antonio (-2.5) @ L.A. Clippers

S.A. finally has a night off and they are playing a talented but soft Clippers team.. even with CP3 at the helm, this team is not as good as people originally thought. I like SA to cover because well, the Spurs are just too solid and consistent.. even on the road they post a 9-1 record in their last ten and they have been great ATS so far as well. The Clippers have had notable struggles against Brooklyn and Boston while the Spurs have been red hot since their last loss at the hands of an amazing Pacers squad. Spurs are third in average score for and are currently fourth in average score allowed. Lock up a W .

By |

Yesterday’s Action: 4-2 (going 1-1 with my impulsive halftime bets)

On The Season: 35-24

Tonight’s Action

Games I like..

Houston (-6.5) @ Sacramento 

I love the way the Rockets are playing lately and it’s not hard to predict them scoring in large quantities this evening. The Kings and their forecasts have been murky for me all year and they have actually punished me a couple times in what I presumed to be “lock” bets. It is weird to say but.. the Kings.. are… extremely talented? Landry, McLemore, Thornton, Outlaw and Thomas of course. Plus, much to the  chagrin of fellow OBB blogger, Nate Knowles, Rudy Gay is a great player who may have finally found a team he can ball with. I still think Dwight down low and Harden on the perimeter are too much for any mediocre team to handle and this spread is just too low not to take. It might be a tight game but I’m sayin’ take Houston to cover and hope that all goes according to plan.

Portland (-4) @ Detroit

Portland scored over 100 points in just THREE quarters last night. I agree, back to back nights are always tricky, but.. don’t be silly, folks. Portland can win this game by 17 with their eyes closed if they continue on their current trend. 8-0 against the spread vs. teams with losing records? Yup. Portland stays hot and covers with ease.

Golden State (-1) @ Phoenix

Here is the moment my main man, Andy, has been waiting for. I am finally gonna bet against the Suns and take GS to cover the tiny -1 spread. Please, don’t hurt me, Phoenix… it’s just because I think Curry is a monster stud and is probably gonna hang 25 on you guys. I also love the athleticism and shooting touch that Barnes brings to the table, not to mention the amazing and energizing play from Draymond Green as of late. The guy is a serious spark plug. Look for Lee to have another double double tonight and Sir Curry to score.. a lot. Sorry, Suns.. you have been good to me this season.. but, I must place my money on the other side this time.