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Yesterday’s Action: 4-2 (going 1-1 with my impulsive halftime bets)

On The Season: 35-24

Tonight’s Action

Games I like..

Houston (-6.5) @ Sacramento 

I love the way the Rockets are playing lately and it’s not hard to predict them scoring in large quantities this evening. The Kings and their forecasts have been murky for me all year and they have actually punished me a couple times in what I presumed to be “lock” bets. It is weird to say but.. the Kings.. are… extremely talented? Landry, McLemore, Thornton, Outlaw and Thomas of course. Plus, much to the  chagrin of fellow OBB blogger, Nate Knowles, Rudy Gay is a great player who may have finally found a team he can ball with. I still think Dwight down low and Harden on the perimeter are too much for any mediocre team to handle and this spread is just too low not to take. It might be a tight game but I’m sayin’ take Houston to cover and hope that all goes according to plan.

Portland (-4) @ Detroit

Portland scored over 100 points in just THREE quarters last night. I agree, back to back nights are always tricky, but.. don’t be silly, folks. Portland can win this game by 17 with their eyes closed if they continue on their current trend. 8-0 against the spread vs. teams with losing records? Yup. Portland stays hot and covers with ease.

Golden State (-1) @ Phoenix

Here is the moment my main man, Andy, has been waiting for. I am finally gonna bet against the Suns and take GS to cover the tiny -1 spread. Please, don’t hurt me, Phoenix… it’s just because I think Curry is a monster stud and is probably gonna hang 25 on you guys. I also love the athleticism and shooting touch that Barnes brings to the table, not to mention the amazing and energizing play from Draymond Green as of late. The guy is a serious spark plug. Look for Lee to have another double double tonight and Sir Curry to score.. a lot. Sorry, Suns.. you have been good to me this season.. but, I must place my money on the other side this time.

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Yesterday: 2-5
Season: 79-63

Orlando (189.5 o/u) @ Charlotte (-6)

Vucevic is questionable again, the Hornetcats are coming off a big, swagger-inducing victory, and the Charlotte fans might actually have something to get fired up about. The over is tempting here, but only if Orlando can shoot the ball, and against this defense I’m not so sure.
Pick: Charlotte -6

LA Clippers (-6) @ Boston (196.5 o/u)

Okay, so Boston has over-performed and LAC has under-performed so far this year, right? I feel pretty good about the Clippers here, even with Doc’s supposedly emotional return to Boston. I don’t buy that “juicy” storyline – I think it was just time for both sides to move on. The over/under is tricky because despite taking part in some high-scoring games lately, Boston’s pacing has grinded to a halt in December. In 4 games, they are averaging just 91.5 possessions per 48 minutes, which would be good for worst in the league over the full season.
Pick: LA Clippers -6

San Antonio (-11) @ Milwaukee (193 o/u)

2nd night of a back-to-back for both teams, total trap game. Could be a pretty low quality game. Not touching it.
Pass

Detroit (202 o/u) @ New Orleans (-3.5)

I really want to bet Detroit in this one, but New Orleans has been hanging tough without the ‘Brow with strong play from Holiday and Anderson. They could shred this Pistons defense pretty efficiently, I think. I also am continuing to take the over on any Pistons game against a league average or better offense.
Pick: Over 202 and New Orleans -3.5

Philadelphia (209.5 o/u) @ Minnesota (-12)

Wow, so Minnesota would have to blow out two horrific Eastern Conference defenses in a row to cover here, huh? Sold.
Pick: Minnesota -12 

Chicago (184 o/u) @ New York (-2.5)

Is anyone actually watching this game between the league’s two biggest markets?
Pass

Oklahoma City (-6) @ Memphis (191.5 o/u)

I like OKC to cover here with ease. Memphis has proven me wrong a few times this year but I still think I have a good feel for them. If they prevent OKC from covering tonight I’ll consider changing my mind about Z-Bo and the Boys.
Pick: OKC -6

Utah (201.5 o/u) @ Sacramento (-7)

Seriously so glad there’s a ridiculous Over/Under in this game because I did not want to bet on either team here.
Pick: Under 201.5 

Dallas (208.5 o/u) @ Golden State (-5)

Both teams coming off tough losses, two high-scoring teams, but Warriors have the better defense. Taking the Dubs here.
Pick: Golden State -5

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Yesterday’s Picks: 3-4

On The Season: 18-14

Tonight’s Action

Miami Heat (+3) at Indiana: I know, I know. Indiana is undefeated at home, and this is virtually a preview of the Eastern Conference finals in many’s opinion. However, coming after a grind of a road trip, they’re definitely a little worn down. I think this match up will come down to the two best players on the court and the obvious winner here will be King James. Paul George has proven he can play with the best in the world but he has done it far less consistently than the company he aims to keep. The Pacers were throttled recently by the Thunder and I predict that even without DWade, the Heat keep them at bay. Miami being an underdog is a rare gift in my opinion and they will be bringing their A-Game to the arena formerly known as Conseco. Miami all the way.

New York at Cleveland (o/u 188.5)

To say both these squads are struggling would be a massive understatement. That being said, it’s important to note that they both allow under 100 PPG and Cleveland is particularly solid at home. The Knicks have surged a little of late but had their souls crushed by Boston, losing by 41 and getting booed of their own, sacred home court. I think it’ll be low scoring with both teams being somewhat of a disaster so far. Knicks have been under in 6 out of their last 7 road games, and Cleveland has been under 4 of their last 6. Let’s hope these trends continue. UNDER.

Boston (+2.) at Brooklynn

Boston continues to overachieve under the leadership of Brad Stevens and they have shocked plenty of people in the process. Brooklyn, on the other hand, has been simply awful and seem destined to occupy the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. They’re 2-6 at home and the Celtics are 6-1 against the spread when facing opponents with losing records. I’ll take my hometown boys here at +2 , as the wrong team is clearly favored in this one.

Oklahoma (-5) at Atlanta

I like OKC here. Hawks fans are all jazzed up because they recently destroyed the 6-12 Cavs. OKC fans are jazzed up because they recently destroyed the 18-2 Pacers. It will be a close game throughout as Atlanta continues to grow as a team but the Durant factor will eventually decide the outcome. In the past 10 games, the Thunder are a sizzling 9-1 and it’s gonna stay that way, even against a very solid Atlanta roster.

San Antonio (-7.5) at Toronto

The raptors will NOT punish me again tonight. SA is gonna dominate.

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Yesterday: 1-2
Season: 74-54

LA Clippers (-8) @ Philadelphia (207 o/u)

Feels like a trap line given Philly’s weird toughness at home this year. Carter-Williams is questionable, but why bet on only one of these fast-paced offenses when you can just take the over? 
Pick: Over 207

Golden State (-5.5) @ Charlotte (195 o/u)

Charlotte has been suddenly excellent defensively this season, but their offense has still been a dreary mess. To make matters worse, that defense will be stretched by Golden State’s ridiculous 3-point attack, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist’s not stepping on that court.
Pick: Golden State -5.5 & Over 195

Denver (-1.5) @ Washington (200 o/u)

This one feels tough – Washington plays at a fast clip, and so does Denver, but the Wizards have been a pretty solid defense so far. The over feels a little too risky here. Nene has had a really nice season so far, and John Wall continues to impress, but I think the Nuggets are a better team. I just don’t have a good feel for this match-up.
Pass

Orlando (188 o/u) @ Memphis (-9.5)

Okay, so, the over/under line for this game opened at 208, and has since plummeted down to 188. 208 was way too high to start with, but I think there has been an over-correction in the market. Yes, it is a Memphis game, and people love to trend low on those score totals, but Marc Gasol isn’t playing and he is their most important defensive piece. Zach Randolph is hurting also, so the bigger question for me won’t be whether Orlando can put up big points, but whether Memphis can.
Pick: Orlando +9.5 & Over

Portland (-7.5) @ Utah (203 o/u)

This one is interesting to me because Utah is playing much better in the past 5 games than they did for the first part of the season. Trey Burke looks like an NBA-caliber point guard, which is basically the exact opposite of how John Lucas III looked early this season. Portland is still playing some really great basketball lately, though, and I think that there’s more than an 8 point difference between these two teams.

Pick: Portland -7.5

Dallas (-4.5) @ Sacramento (204.5 o/u)

Easiest pick of the night for me. Post-trade Sacramento is short-handed, unsettled and will be relying on Boogie Cousins more than usual for leadership with veterans like John Salmons and Chuck Hayes gone. Not a good sign.

Pick: Dallas -4.5

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Yesterday: 6-3
Season: 67-49

Denver (-6.5) @ Philadelphia (213 o/u)

Pick: Over 213

LA Clippers (-6.5) @ Cleveland (197.5 o/u)

Pick: Under 197.5

Golden State (191.5 o/u) @ Memphis (-1)

Pick: Golden State +1 & Over 191.5

Miami (-6 ) @ Minnesota (202.5 o/u )

Pick: Miami -6

Detroit (189 o/u) @ Chicago (-4.5)

Pick: Detroit +4.5

Indiana (188 o/u) @ San Antonio (-3.5)

Pick: Indiana +3.5

Brooklyn (-3) @ Milwaukee (189.5 o/u)

Pass

Sacramento (193.5 o/u) @ Utah (-2)

Pass

Dallas (208 o/u) @ Portland (-6)

Pick: Over 208 and Portland -6

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By Andy Seidel

Earlier this week, I dissected the issue of the gigantic gap between the Eastern and Western Conferences and looked into both the staggering numbers behind it and the few ways in which the East had shown promise so far (namely tough, physical defense). Then on Tuesday, I looked ahead to forecast the Eastern Conference teams that could turn it around, make the playoffs and maybe even bring a little bit of respectability back to the East. The most common questions that came from readers of those articles were how did it get this bad and how does the East fix it?

The East has gotten where it is today through a series of conscious decisions, believe it or not. Some teams decided to mortgage the present ceiling of their teams for future benefit, while others took calculated gambles with the goal of winning now. Many of those gambles haven’t paid off, leading to the mess of mediocrity we have now. Before the season started, there were three perceived divisions of teams in the East that were far more relevant than the Atlantic, Midwest and Southeast Divisions: The Tankers (BOS, PHI, ORL, MIL), The Muddled Middle (DET, CLE, WAS, CHA, ATL, TOR) and The Supposed Contenders (MIA, IND, CHI, and possibly NYK & BKN).

The results, obviously, have instead left only two teams in The Contenders division. This past week, Washington has joined Atlanta and Chicago in the Muddled Middle division (and possibly Charlotte), but that’s about it. That leaves 10-11 teams in the Tankers division, even though more than half of those 11 have made it clear they want to win now and make the playoffs this year. Not a good sign when two of your supposed contenders have worse records than any of your supposed tankers, save Milwaukee.

This has resulted from poor personnel combinations and poor coaching so far in New York, Cleveland and Brooklyn, especially. These are the teams that have the talent to compete, but so far have done exactly the opposite (Side-note: The Brooklyn-NYK game last night was called a must-watch for all the wrong reasons, and it lived up to the billing. What an atrocity of a basketball game). Some of the others, such as Detroit, Toronto and Orlando, are still in the midst of figuring themselves out. Detroit for sure wants a playoff spot (and should get it) because of a draft pick related trade with Charlotte they made to get rid of Ben Gordon a few years back, but I think Toronto and Orlando are both heading the other direction, and fast. I expect Afflalo, DeRozan and Lowry all to be dealt sometime between Dec 15 and Feb 1st and for these teams to try and book it to the bottom of their respective divisions, which in Toronto’s case will be pretty hard.

However the differences in mindset between teams like Detroit/Cleveland and Toronto/Orlando isn’t a bad thing when you then consider two things: A) The Eastern Conference teams will all have to play 52 games against each other this season, which makes it easier for the teams that are trying to win now AND the teams that are trying to tank out to sort themselves out as the season progresses; and B) The more likely way to fix this conference disparity isn’t through a series of trades or free-agent signings, but the draft.

Several franchises have embraced this and are seriously looking at the benefits of starting fresh and trying to cultivate some in-house talent rather than gunning for aging or expensive free-agents. At the head of this pack are Philadelphia and Toronto, two forward thinking franchises lead by very smart people. They lead a coalition of four franchises that won’t fix the East this season, but just might be able to save it in the long run.

The Four Fixers:

1. Philadelphia 76ers – Sam Hinkie became a league darling on Draft Night 2013 when he shipped Jrue Holiday to the Pelicans for Nerlens Noel and a 2014 1st Round pick, a brilliant coup that got rid of a player who didn’t fit the analytics-based model Hinkie wanted to build on, brought in a guy with a very high defensive ceiling, and made a probabilistic, calculated bet on the odd roster construction of the Pelicans not working well.

With the unfortunate broken hand of Anthony Davis, I would say that the bet is almost certain to payoff. I had the Pelicans hovering around a 9-13% chance of a playoff spot before Davis’ injury. Now? I wouldn’t put it higher than 6% on my most optimistic model. The West is too tough. Philly’s collection of young, talented yet inexperienced players and league castaways helps to put them at a very high probability of snagging two lottery picks in a superbly talented draft.

That, coupled with probably letting Evan Turner walk for the sake of fit and future cap space, leaves them with Noel and two other future assets to pair with the so-far excellent Michael Carter-Williams as a core. Thad Young is a nice piece and Spencer Hawes is having a good season, but I get the feeling this team is building from their 2013 class of MCW and Noel forward, which bodes well given what we’ve seen out of the 2014 potential draftees so far in the college season. Couple that with their blistering league-leading pace so far and the great coaching of Brett Brown this season and this looks great for Hinkie’s 5-year plan. Cheers, Philly.

2. Toronto Raptors – Masai Ujiri inherited this island of misfit toys at the ideal moment. Rudy Gay is shooting the team out of contention on his own, while Kyle Lowry and Demar DeRozan are playing themselves into the position of being very movable pieces. Both have been solid-to-very good on a nightly basis this season, and neither is wildly overpaid the way that Gay is. Trading these two would leave you with a this-season core of the promising Valanciunas, advanced stats darling Amir Johnson, electrifying Terence Ross and Rudy Gay. That is a sub-35 win team if I’ve ever seen one, even in this year’s Eastern Conference. A lottery pick would be a reality for that team, and in this case, that would be an excellent prize.

I belive in Ujiri. I don’t think he’ll be able to move Gay this season, and that’s O.K. Instead, let him stink up the games and ban stat sheets from the locker room (and drive Dwayne Casey out of town in the process). That will drive you into a potentially very good-to-great draft pick and let you build around 2014 Prospect X, Valanciunas, Ross and Johnson. Considering Ujiri’s intelligence with fitting role players to a situation (See: Denver 2012-13) and his faith in pace and advanced metrics that becomes more important in this league each year, I think they have the look of a solid playoff team in 3-5 years. Get it done, T-Dot.

3. Boston Celtics – The Celtics began this process by cutting ties with franchise legends Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett in June, continued it by hiring Brad Stevens to a 6-year contract that leaves plenty of room to stink for a few years, and just yesterday embraced Tankology 2013 yet again by announcing that Rajon Rondo will not be playing basketball again anytime soon. So far, this team has tanked at tanking (thanks a lot, Jared Sullinger) but they have learned a lot about their young players and their young coach in the process. This knowledge on it’s own will be a valuable asset going forward.

What’s more, the high minutes given to guys like Jordan Crawford, Avery Bradley, Brandon Bass and the aforementioned Sullinger make them more valuable in trade talks because they’ve kept the team relatively competitive despite never having been focal points of a professional team before. I fully expect this team to sell someone off before February to avoid any chance of making the playoffs.

If they will choose to keep Rondo to build around or mortgage him off for a future asset remains to be seen, but this team has set themselves up with a gluttony of draft picks in the coming years (2 first rounders in every year until 2019. Seriously.) courtesy of the Nets and Clippers.l. Those assets coupled with the young talent they are cultivating in players like Sullinger, Bradely and Olynyk, and they have far more of a future than a present. Celtic Pride never Dies, I put this team on the 5-year plan along with Philly and let it ride.

4. Orlando Magic – Somehow this team turned a disgruntled superstar who turned out to be in decline anyway into a young, skilled post guy and a probable All-Star and 22 point-per-game scorer in Nikola Vucevic and Arron Afflalo. They drafted and acquired a series of skilled, promising power forwards in Tobias Harris, Andrew Nicholson and Moe Harkless, and had Victor Oladipo fall into their laps because Cleveland had a bit too much faith in Dion Waiters. All of a sudden this team’s present outlook is actually not bad – which is why Afflalo is likely gone before the deadline.

Look, I’m all for teams trying to get playoff experience and the value that pride can bring to a franchise. But this team seriously might be one piece away from being able to home-grow a serious perennial playoff team! If they can lose some games fast by jettisoning Afflalo now and Big Baby and Jameer after the season, then they are left with a core of Harris/Harkless/Nicholson, Oladipo, Vucevic and 2014 Propsect Y. That plus a plethora future draft picks (Orlando has been brilliant about keeping them and stockpiling other teams such as Denver’s 2014 1st and the Lakers’ 2017 1st) and a very smart coach in Jacques Vaughn who has a proper long view perspective, and this team has both the right pieces and mentality to turn into a contender over the next decade. Be a leader, Orlando, not Afflalower.